Yucca Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS65 KVEF 032212
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
312 PM PDT Sat May 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A potent low pressure system will push through the
Desert Southwest this weekend and start of next week, which will
bring gusty winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and
cooler temperatures to the region. Conditions dry out and
temperatures climb back to above-average through the week and
heading into next weekend.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

A potent trough has pushed into the region today, with the center of
circulation expected to close off over the Desert Southwest tonight.
This system has ushered in moisture 150 to 250 percent of normal for
this time of year, coupled with synoptic ascent and daytime heating,
we have already observed scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Inverted V-shaped forecast HRRR
soundings show between 1000 and 1150 J/kg of DCAPE across the
forecast area this afternoon. These dry low levels will result in
strong gusty winds in excess of 50 mph from some of the stronger
thunderstorms. In fact, numerous 55 - 60 mph gusts were measured in
the southern portions of the Las Vegas Valley earlier this
afternoon, along with a 65 mph gust measured in the test site. Best
chances of shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to shift
northwestward through the remainder of the afternoon, with expected
impacts including locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small
hail, and strong gusty winds. As mentioned in the forecast update,
the best chances for severe thunderstorms continue to be across
Esmeralda and central/southern Nye where SPC has highlighted a
"Marginal" Risk of severe-level winds. As the system closes off
tonight, ascent continues, despite the removal of daytime heating.
Another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
pick up around 3 to 4am and will continue through the morning. There
will be a brief reprieve late-morning / early-afternoon before
convection returns in the afternoon thanks to daytime heating.
Moistening of the low levels will result in a lesser concern for
strong gusty winds tomorrow, but frequent lightning, elevated rain
rates, and small hail will continue to pose a threat. Convection
returns on Monday as the low pushes eastward out of our area, with
best chances of showers and thunderstorms in Lincoln, Clark, and
Mohave counties.

In addition to convection, increased pressure gradients as a result
of this incoming trough and a ridge of high pressure in the
southeastern Pacific will increase west-southwesterly winds today in
the western Mojave Desert (northwestern San Bernardino County).
Expect widespread wind gusts 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph in
the higher terrain. As the trough axis pushes through the region
tonight, expect increased north-northwesterly winds across northern
Inyo, Esmeralda, and southern Nye counties.

Finally, the cold front associated with this trough will drop snow
levels to 8500 to 9500 feet tonight. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory will go into effect for the eastern Sierra Slopes today at
5pm and will continue until 11pm Sunday night. Additionally,
temperatures will drop substantially between today and Monday, with
Monday`s afternoon highs reading between 10 and 14 degrees below
normal.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

The lingering affects of this weekend`s storm system will remain at
least into midweek with low chances for showers and perhaps a few
storms into Wednesday. This is in response to remaining cold air
aloft while temperatures gradually begin to warmup near the surface,
generating instability. From Thursday into the weekend, a noted
warmup is in store as broad upper ridging develops across the Desert
Southwest. This is well captured in the ensembles, which depict a
return to temperatures above seasonal normals and much drier
conditions as we near next weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Winds will shift from the southwest over the next couple of hours,
with gusts between 25 and 30 kts as shower activity picks up in the
vicinity of the terminal. After sunset, gusts will drop off, but the
prevailing wind direction will continue from the southwest until
between 12 and 14Z when a wind shift occurs from the north-
northwest. Overnight, shower and thunderstorm activity will pick up
between 10 and 16Z, with a 30 percent chance of impacts to the
terminal. With thunderstorm activity, expect erratic, gusty winds
from the direction of the storm. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return Sunday afternoon. With stronger thunderstorms, impacts could
include locally heavy rainfall, brief drops to MVFR/IFR conditions,
small hail, and frequent lightning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package... KVGT and
KHND can expect gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 30 kts this
afternoon, with gusts falling off after sunset. A wind shift from
the north-northwest will occur between 10 and 14Z. Vicinity showers
this afternoon could result in erratic wind gusts and direction.
Best chances of showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminals
between 10 and 16Z, with chances returning Sunday afternoon. KBIH
can expect gusty south winds between 25 and 30 kts today, with
vicinity showers. Best chances of shower and thunderstorm activity
impacting the terminal will be between 23 and 06Z tonight, with
erratic wind gusts from the direction of the storms. KDAG will gust
from the west between 30 and 35 kts today, with vicinity showers
through 10Z. KEED and KIFP will gust from the south between 25 and
30 kts today, with vicinity showers after sunset. With stronger
thunderstorms, impacts could include locally heavy rainfall, brief
drops to MVFR/IFR conditions, small hail, and frequent lightning.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Austin
AVIATION...Soulat

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